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Actively promote the reform of trade statistics added value
Source:Zhongzheng Wang - China Securities Journal | Author:wxyanyang | Published time: 2014-11-12 | 1189 Views | Share:
  Minister of Commerce Gao said recently that China this year will be first introduced in the global value chain issues APEC cooperation agenda, which is bound to have a significant impact on the reform of the international trade statistics system and standards. Over the past decade, the scope and field of international division of labor continues to expand, gradually from the development of inter-industry division of labor within the industry division, and then evolved into the intra-product specialization based international division of labor. Intermediate product into the internal division of labor based trade called intra-product trade, thus forming a "global value chain division of labor" system.

  Faced with a new pattern of global leading trade value chain background, based on the principle of origin of the tradition of the total trade statistics there are at least two drawbacks: First, because there are a lot of intermediate goods trade, cross-border trade volume statistics rather than the net added value will generate a lot of double counting; the second is due not reflect the product in the production processes of flow, so the bilateral trade statistics are included in the value of intermediate inputs his country. As in "triangular trade" model, China's exports to the United States contains a large number of inputs from the middle East to Japan, Korea and other countries imported goods, an urgent need for a new international trade statistics methods. The new accounting method, therefore, one can be a true reflection of global trade operations and trade order - increase the value of trade statistics are more and more attention.

  Under international trade organizations to vigorously promote and advocate, in 2011 the authority of international institutions have been mainly released a research report on trade-related increase in the value of statistics, such as the 2011 WTO and IDE-JETRO Japan release of "trade patterns and global value of East Asia chain: from trade in goods to trade in tasks "Report, January 16, 2013 OECD (OECD) and the WTO launched the world's first edition of the added value of trade statistics database reports, February 27, 2013 UNCTAD (UNCTAD) released "Global value chains and development: the global economy and the added value of the investment trade", etc., caused great concern in the international media, making it the global economic imbalances has re-understanding.

  According to the WTO and IDE-JETRO (2011) report, the method is estimated to increase the value of trade, Sino-US trade surplus in 2000, 2005 and 2008 in three years compared to traditional statistical methods calculated to be reduced 20-27% favorable balance If taking into account the factors of processing trade, the degree of trade imbalance is reduced by more than 40%, even up to a 53% reduction in size in 2005, showing that global imbalances are not the full value of the statistics so serious.

  A country's export products, including not only the domestic value added, including foreign value added. Domestic value added refers to the added value of a country's domestic exports contained in this part of the increase in the value of exports from domestic production to other countries or be folded to return home. UNCTAD (2013) report shows that about 28 percent of global exports is importing countries just to be imported as the production of export goods or services in some intermediate products in global exports in 2010 $ 19 trillion, about 5 one trillion US dollars duplicate accounting, which for the division of labor in the global value chain of processing trade and intermediate goods trade-based business model, the greater this double counting and inflated ingredients.

  In the global value chain, mainly the United States mastered the core technology of its specialized production of high value-added parts, while China has long been inadequate due to the high-tech R & D capacity, mainly for its abundant labor to undertake some of the products with low added value processing, assembly and so on. Such a division of labor determines that China is bound to import large quantities of intermediate inputs; and the United States are mainly multinational companies across the globe as the main production and sales, on the surface of most of the performance of cross-border exports of intermediate goods, in fact, domestic production in the world layout and continuity within the range.

  Vertical specialization in China's rapid development began in the 1990s, with continued rapid growth in processing trade mark, trade in intermediate goods accounted for the proportion of foreign trade also will be increased significantly. Accession to the WTO ten years, the average annual growth rate of intermediate goods trade in goods is significantly higher than consumer goods and capital goods.

  At present, China's processing trade exports in total exports of around four percent. China in manufactured goods processing and assembly sectors still have a comparative advantage, is the world's largest producer and exporter of industrial goods, the United States, the European Union is the most important end-consumer market. Due to a large number of labor-intensive processing and assembling sectors transferred from Japan, Korea, Singapore and other places to China, these countries and regions turned to the United States, Europe and the surplus is also transferred to mainland China. This shift may be embodied by re-import, or "goods exported and subsequently imported into the country."

  Through the Chinese mainland EPZs investigation found that due to logistics and infrastructure in areas of advanced capabilities, products through Hong Kong low transport costs and save time. EPZs exports can enjoy export tax rebates, intermediate goods imported for processing and post-processing can also enjoy preferential tax exports. China is by far the world's major re-importing countries, re-import has increased more than 12-fold since 2000, re-import is becoming an important part of China's trade imbalance between China and the developed countries components are grossly exaggerated.

  More serious is that not only did the size of puffiness trade growth benefits allocated to China, but exacerbated the conflict between China and its trading partners, and the Sino-US trade friction is particularly evident. Since the reform and opening up, except for a few years, the customs statistics of China's trade surplus has expanded each year, from 1995's $ 16.7 billion in 2008 rising to a peak of $ 298.1 billion. Since then, the global financial crisis, the trade surplus has dropped slightly, China 2013 trade surplus of $ 259.7 billion. 2011 In terms of current account surplus as a share of GDP "imbalances" a measure of the degree, according to the IMF World Economic Outlook database shows that China's current-account imbalances share of total global imbalances from 2003's 6.8% rise the 2008 peak of 24.3%, 24.1% in 2009, fell to 19.9 percent in 2010, one-fifth of global imbalances from China, currency friction, trade friction resulting. As of 2013, more than 22 countries and regions, China launched 94 trade remedy investigations, an increase of 22%, including 58 cases of anti-dumping, countervailing 3 cases, double reverse 15 onwards, 18 cases of safeguard measures. China trade friction is still the hardest hit in the world, suffered the most cases of trade friction, a higher increase.

  Therefore, the APEC APEC summit to promote cooperation in global value chains as a major issue, and actively promote trade and increase the value of statistical reform, from one side of the global value chain confirms new pattern will dominate the future of trade, China is bound to the value chain through the implementation of the strategy Forced domestic upgrading.